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Take a look at this article….
$7-a-gallon gas, 10-million fewer cars: Rubin
Globe and Mail Update
June 26, 2008 at 1:47 PM EDT
A new forecast calls for gasoline prices to hit $7 (U.S.) a gallon in the next two years and oil to soar to $200 a barrel by 2010.
The report by CIBC World Markets also predicts there will be 10 million fewer cars on the road in the United States by 2012.
“Over the next four years, we are likely to witness the greatest mass exodus of vehicles off America’s highways in history,” Jeffrey Rubin, the lead author, wrote in Thursday’s report.
Economist Benjamin Tal, who co-authored the report with Mr. Rubin, said Canadians can expect to pay about $1.85 to $2.00 per litre of gas at the pumps by 2010.
~snip~
“We don’t have the same story in the sense that most low income Canadians have better access to public transportation,” he said, referring to the report’s U.S. calculations that estimates that about half the cars coming off the road will be from Americans who make less than $25,000.”
~snip~
After reading this news article and letting out an OMG!, I visited Our Friendly Earth again to read Joy’s post, The Price of Gas and Public Transit. So here’s another dilemma….how are all those people who have to give up their vehicles going to get around? As Joy pointed out, in Kansas City the public transit system is woefully lacking. In addition, what about rural Americans? At present, most small towns can not support the employment needs of their population, which demands the breadwinners to drive to larger communities. What are they going to do?
Yesterday I had some pretty devastating financial news that has me questioning my two year haitus from teaching. We had planned for me to be a SAHM until DD graduates next year, however because of one little…itsy, teensy letter (well actually it was several pages thick) that I received yesterday…those plans may have to change.
So today, I find this article….and…the neighbors could have heard my OMG! What the heck will I do if THIS happens? two streets over.
A quick, in my head, calculation gave me a rough estimate of what it would cost me to drive to work every day….close to $27 a day! As a substitute that would be almost 1/2 of my daily net pay…as a full time teacher…about 1/3. How in the world is that going to work? Okay…I realize it is not THAT bad for ME…I will at least have some amount of money left over after stopping at the pump…and unfortunately be netting less than minimum wage….but again (tell me if this gets old here)….how in the sam-hill are younger families, minimum wage earners, the elderly on fixed incomes going to survive this?
My thought is the rural areas will suffer greatly with population declines. The Ghosts Towns of the Old West will now have competition from every state. People are going to have to move where they can find employment and be able to either walk or take public transit. So there’s a new dilemma. Kansas City cannot not be the only large city with deficient public transportation. Will the cities be able to handle the influx of new residents?
When I was much younger, and before I actually understood the ramifications of public administration, I lived in a suburban city of Dallas, Texas. Public transit was on the ballot for our city. Proponents wanted to offer public transportation from the bedroom community to the inner city, however, those opposed argued that public transportation would bring poverty, thus crime to the area as well as raise the sales taxes. I believe that suburban city still does not offer public transportation (outside of a taxi). So what is suburbia going to do?
What are we ALL going to do?
June 26th, 2008 - 2:20 pm
Wow, after my my (long-range thinking) comments on the Hausfrau’s latest blog, this brings home more of immediate reality. I guess I’m envisioning a great Depression…which is not cheerful at all. I think the people who live the farthest out tend to be more reliant to begin with (storing, having gardens, animals, etc) but it’s the folks who live in bedroom communities or have massive urban commutes who are going to get hit hard, it seems. My brother commutes 30 miles one way as a teacher, too. Argh.
June 27th, 2008 - 5:06 am
I think we’re going to see a return to caring for our neighbors. I have several older widow ladies that I’m going to offer to take along with me when I go grocery shopping or to the drug store. I can’t offer to help anyone financially but I can be more thoughtful in sharing my car and any extra produce I might have. My brother always inundates us with his garden bounty and some usually rotted before we could eat it. That certainly won’t happen this year; his produce is going around the neighborhood.
June 30th, 2008 - 1:25 pm
Kansas City is certainly not alone in their public transportation deficiency. I live in a rather large New England community and we’ve been fighting for years for improvements to no avail. At least in our case, it seems like those in position to make changes are driving mercedes and bmw’s so what do they care? Just my opinion, here…
June 30th, 2008 - 1:33 pm
MJ-Thanks for stopping in and sharing your opinion. I cannot decide whether it will be the urban or rural populations that will suffer the most if the scenarios being painted by Peak Oil experts come to be. Each have their own unique battles. I can certainly see where urban areas could see population explosions, either by those who are financially able to move to the city, or by those who are forced to live with friends/relatives so that they can be within walking or bike riding distance of employment and services. Transportation would be a huge issue, as would keeping up with other burdens or demands on city resources.
Thanks so much for commenting and I hope you will drop back in and join in our conversations.
June 30th, 2008 - 3:14 pm
I think the rural populace is better prepared mentally to handle the gas/economic crisis. I’ve lived rural the past 25 years in Kansas, prior to that in my hometown. The so-called rural people I know, grew up with are frugal, saved instead of spent money, prepared for hard times. They drove cheap or used economical cars. They know how to eat, dress, shop cheap. The last 15-20 years has taken it’s toll on rural Americans, like everyone. Medical care is a HUGE issue here. VERY EXPENSIVE unless you are over 65, can draw medicare, and even find a Dr. That being said however…rural America has got some serious problems with jobs/population/services leaving to the urban centers. We also have an aging populace, compounding the transportation, health care problem. I see relatives, children, grandchildren even taking in their aging, infirm parents, grandparents in the next 20-30 years. They won’t have any choice. With 70 million boomers growing older by the minute, that will be interesting.
Urban/metro centers have many advantages…car pooling, mass transit, biking/walking paths, shorter distances for goods/services/employment. People are closer to each other to help out, town/city communities are tighter knit I think. There are always those idiots that will drive the Hummers, and consume rather than generate. In a way..the really large metro areas have it better…except if jobs have to be commuted long distances. I can forsee company/employers helping employees with transportation burden by biz/company transport vans. Like a school bus picking up kids for school…only it would be a company bus that the employees would pay a small fee out of their incomes, the employer, the feds would subsidize to get rides to work. As Americans…we can adapt to very extreme times in decades past. We can do it again. It’ll be VERY painful. We may just start looking out for each other like in the “old days”, helping our friends and neighbors, sharing our own resources, time, talents so other people won’t suffer. It will be we instead of me. The fed gov. has GOT to get it’s blinders off…the oil just isn’t going to flow cheap and plentiful anymore.